神经网络及其在水库调洪演算中的应用

结合洪水灾害管理的特点建立了水库调洪演算的人工神经网络模型，阐述了其基本原理及算法，并结合某水库调洪演算实例说明了其应用。     

孟连,丽江地震前云南天文台时纬残差异常

本文分析了云南天文台光电等高仪自有观测以来的时纬残差异常与云南及其周邻地区大地震的对应关系；并报导了孟连、丽江地震前云南天文台的时纬残差均有明显异常。这再次证明时纬残差的明显异常可为台站周围的强震预测提供可靠信息     

支持灾害管理决策的咨询信息系统

为减少中国大城市灾害造成的损失，运用信息科学、系统科学的方法和计算机技术，建立支持灾害管理决策的咨询信息系统（ＤＭＤＳＣＩＳ）。灾害文献数据库管理系统（ＤＬＤＢＭＳ）是这一咨询信息系统的知识基础和信息来源。本文论述了“ＤＬＤＢＭＳ”和三个主要的子系统“灾害文献数据库管理系统”、“灾害事实数据库管理系统”、“中外减灾法规超文本检索系统”的作用、设计思想、构成、功能和实现方法。     

自然爆炸灾害的危害及其预防方法探讨

本文对两种自然爆炸灾害——天体对地球的撞击和空间碎片对航天器的撞击进行了分析，指出了这种自然灾害发生的概率及危害特性，探讨了预防灾害的可能方案。     

加强水资源的系统管理

我国是一个水资源十分短缺的国家，加强水资源管理刻不容缓。为此，本文结合我国水资源管理的实际状况，从思想、组织、方法、手段等方面分别论述了加强水资源系统管理的必要性和可能性。     

Quantitative Assessment of the Intertidal Environment of Kuwait I: Integrated Environmental Classification

Quantitative analysis of physical, chemical and biological data of the intertidal zone in Kuwait was undertaken to develop an integrated basis for assessing and protecting this sensitive coastal ecosystem. Cluster analyses were performed to determine the resemblance between the sampling stations based on the sediment composition, the benthic macrofauna and the physico-chemical characteristics of the intertidal sediment/water. Five distinct sub-environments were delineated within the intertidal zone of Kuwait. Each sub-environment was described in terms of number of taxa, mean density of organisms, sediment type, tidal level and dominant organisms. The physico-chemical parameters investigated were found to be unimportant in the distribution of the intertidal benthic macrofauna. On the other hand, sediment type was found to be a major factor in the overall composition of the benthic community. The benthic fauna and related characteristics of the sub-environments could be used as indicators to monitor changes in the intertidal ecosystem and as guides to protection and management of the different coasts. The approach described in this paper could also be adopted elsewhere to provide a sound basis for evaluating environmental impacts and for developing sustainable coastal management.     

NATURAL EROSION RATES AND THEIR PREDICTION IN THE IDAHO BATHOLITH1

ABSTRACT: Natural rates of surface erosion on forested granitic soils in central Idaho were measured in 40 m² bordered erosion plots over a period of four years. In addition, we measured a variety of site variables, soil properties, and summer rainstorm intensities in order to relate erosion rates to site attributes. Median winter erosion rates are approximately twice summer period rates, however mean summer rates are nearly twice winter rates because of infrequent high erosion caused by summer rainstorms. Regression equation models and regression tree models were constructed to explore relationships between erosion and factors that control erosion rates. Ground cover is the single factor that has the greatest influence on erosion rates during both summer and winter periods. Rainstorm intensity (erosivity index) strongly influences summer erosion rates, even on soils with high ground cover percentages. Few summer storms were of sufficient duration and intensity to cause rilling on the plots, and the data set was too small to elucidate differences in rill vs. interrill erosion. The regression tree models are relatively less biased than the regression equations developed, and explained 70 and 84 percent of the variability in summer and winter erosion rates, respectively.     

MUNICIPAL WATER USE AND WATER RATES DRIVEN BY SEVERE DROUGHT: A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: This paper synthesizes and interprets data pertaining to the evolution of average water revenue, water use, and the average cost of water supply in the City of Santa Barbara, California, from 1986 to 1996, a period which included one of the most devastating droughts in California this century. The 1987–1992 drought hit the study area particularly hard. The City of Santa Barbara was dependent exclusively on local sources for its water supply. That made it vulnerable as the regional climate is prone to extreme variability and recurrent droughts. The 1986–1992 drought provided a rare opportunity to assess the sensitivity of municipal water use to pricing, conservation, and other water management measures under extreme drought conditions. Our analysis indicates that the average cost of water rose more than three-fold in real terms from 1986 to 1996, while the gap between the average cost of supply and the average revenue per unit of water (= 100 cubic feet) rose in real terms from $0.14 in 1986 to $ 0.75 in 1996. The rise of $3.08 in the average cost of supplying one unit of water between 1986 and 1996 measures the cost of hedging drought risk in the study area. Water use dropped 46 percent at the height of the drought relative to pro-drought water use, and remains at 61 percent of the pre-drought level. The data derived from the 1987–1992 California drought are unique and valuable insofar as shedding light on drought/water demand adaptive interactions. The experience garnered on drought management during that unique period points to the possibilities available for future water management in the Arid West where dwindling water supplies and burgeoning populations are facts that we must deal with.     

DENSITY CURRENT INTRUSIONS IN AN ICE-COVERED URBAN LAKE1

ABSTRACT: Evidence is presented that snowmelt runoff from an urban watershed can produce density current intrusions (underflows) in a lake. Several episodes of density current intrusions are documented. Water temperatures and salinities measured near the bottom of a 10 m deep Minneapolis lake during the late winter warming periods in 1989, 1990, 1991, and 1995 show significant rapid changes which are correlated with observed higher air temperatures and snowmelt runoff. The snowmelt runoff entering this particular lake (Ryan Lake) has increased electrical conductivity, salinity, and density. The source of the salinity is the salt spread on urban streets in the winter. Heating of littoral waters in spring may also contribute to the occurrence of the sinking flows, but is clearly not the only cause.     

安全管理职业化与职业安全管理队伍建设

提出了安全管理职业化的概念，并就建立职业安全管理队伍的措施以及安全管理社会化服务问题进行了讨论。